Examining the role of environmental memory in the predictability of carbon and water fluxes across Australian ecosystems

Abstract

The vegetation's response to climate change is a significant source of uncertainty in future terrestrial biosphere model projections. Constraining climate-carbon cycle feedbacks requires improving our understanding of both the immediate and long-term plant physiological responses to climate. In particular, the timescales and strength of memory effects arising from both extreme events (i.e. droughts and heatwaves) and structural lags in the systems (such as delays between rainfall and peak plant water content or between a precipitation deficit and down-regulation of productivity) have largely been overlooked in the development of terrestrial biosphere models. This is despite the knowledge tha..